Peace and Conflict Studies - Spring 2014

Peace and Conflict Studies Volume 21, Number 1 95 be measured dichotomously, rather than continuously (see Elkins (2000) for a discussion of continuous vs. dichotomous measures of democracy). In Model 5, a state is considered a democracy if it had a “democracy – autocracy” score of 6 or higher in the original scale (or 17 or higher in my converted scale). Finally, Model 6 replicates the original model with a relative , rather than absolute measure of development. Nominal values of indicators such as gross domestic product per capita in time-series settings might be problematic because even when using constant dollars we cannot avoid the problem of “rising average”. In measuring relative economic development, I accepted the US GDP per capita as baseline (100) and compared other states’ development levels with that of the US, i.e. Relative Development a = (GDPpc a / GDPpc us )*100. Table III: Replications of the original model. CONFLICT TYPE & SEVERITY SAMPLE MEASUREMENT (1) D.V.: Onset only (2) D.V.: Use of force (3) NO Developed (4) NO Oil-rich Dyad (5) Dichotomous Democracy (6) Relative Development Variables Coefficient Coefficient Coefficient Coefficient Coefficient Coefficient Democracy low -0.0041 -0.0133 -0.0070 -0.0111 -0.1594 -0.0146 Development low -0.0517*** -0.1052*** -0.0669*** -0.0656** -0.0745*** -0.0163*** Capability Ratio (log) -0.1124*** -0.1474*** -0.1514*** -0.1600*** -0.1619*** -0.1595*** Alliance -0.3092*** -0.5841*** -0.4989*** -0.4887*** -0.4979*** -0.4876*** Major Power 0.3559** 0.0611 0.2007 0.2948* 0.2992* 0.2760* Developed 0.1670 0.1430 -0.0164 0.0066 0.0388 State Age low 0.0063*** 0.0067*** 0.0069*** 0.0068*** 0.0069*** 0.0070*** Peaceyears -0.0484*** -0.1122*** -0.1077*** -0.1084*** -0.1091*** -0.1081*** N 12175 12175 10991 11933 12175 12175 Log likelihood -2698.4385 -2651.4177 -2806.9213 -3091.1491 -3109.0604 -3108.604 Wald chi 2 (11) 476.72 508.40 462.39 554.40 561.21 552.46 Prob>chi 2 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 Pseudo R 2 0.1289 0.2331 0.2312 0.2346 0.2365 0.2366 P-values are based on two-tailed significance test. *** p <0.01; ** p <0.05; * p <0.10. Robust standard errors are clustered on each dyad. Three splines are not reported to save space.